V-Lab
Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
47.92%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Week
48.04%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Month
48.41%
decreased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8938 | 94.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1418 | 19.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8472 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7088 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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