V-Lab
Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.75%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
42.89%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
46.04%
increased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0285 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1066 | 2.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8423 | 13.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0117 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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