V-Lab
Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
47.74%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Week
48.13%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Month
49.17%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6152 | 3.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0334 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8738 | 50.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0232 | 10.89*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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