V-Lab
Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
44.64%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Week
46.21%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
49.88%
increased by 3.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.03) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7781 | 8.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1309 | 15.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7919 | 63.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0257 | 5.90*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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