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V-Lab

Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

44.64%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Week

46.21%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

49.88%

increased by 3.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.03) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7781
8.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1309
15.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7919
63.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0257
5.90***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days