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V-Lab

Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

50.78%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

51.22%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Month

52.47%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0335
5.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1049
2.53**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8474
14.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0439
0.13

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days