V-Lab
Roundhill DLY 2X LG Magn SVN Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
50.78%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
51.22%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
52.47%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0335 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1049 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8474 | 14.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0439 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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