TrueShares Eagle Global Next Gen Power Infrastructure ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
12.92%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
13.02%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
13.17%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9578 | 10.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0844 | 1.66* |
| βGARCH | 0.7395 | 4.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0824 | -1.38 |
0.824
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9578 | 10.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0844 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7395 | 4.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0824 | -1.38 |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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