V-Lab
Vanguard Ftse Canada IDX ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.67%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
13.99%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
14.88%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0566 | 8.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.1423 | 7.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8055 | 41.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0097 | 2.71*** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0566 | 8.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1423 | 7.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8055 | 41.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0097 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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