V-Lab
Vanguard Ftse Canada IDX ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.31%
increased by 0.72%
1 Week
12.32%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
12.37%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0213 | 3.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8698 | 66.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.1922 | 4.63*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0213 | 3.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8698 | 66.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1922 | 4.63*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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