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V-Lab

Vanguard Ftse Canada IDX ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

12.39%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

12.42%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

12.50%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vanguard Ftse Canada IDX ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 10.32 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6431
3.07***
αARCH0.1286
4.58***
βGARCH0.9581
62.39***
νDF10.3241
0.71

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6431
3.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1286
4.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9581
62.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.3241
0.71

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days