V-Lab
Vanguard Ftse Canada IDX ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.39%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
12.42%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
12.50%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 10.32 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6431 | 3.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1286 | 4.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9581 | 62.39*** |
| νDF | 10.3241 | 0.71 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6431 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1286 | 4.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9581 | 62.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.3241 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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