V-Lab
Vanguard Ftse Canada IDX ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
9.57%
increased by 0.92%
1 Week
9.85%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
10.69%
increased by 2.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6415 | 12.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1279 | 18.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9585 | 248.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.2136 | 2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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