V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
117.19%
decreased by 7.40%
1 Week
125.76%
increased by 1.17%
1 Month
133.30%
increased by 8.71%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0794 | 4.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1716 | 2.15** |
| βGARCH | 0.5428 | 1.86* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.6470 | -1.16 |
0.714
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0794 | 4.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1716 | 2.15** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5428 | 1.86* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.6470 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.714
Half-life:
2 days
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