V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
152.91%
decreased by 8.74%
1 Week
159.12%
decreased by 2.53%
1 Month
180.23%
increased by 18.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.16 |
| αARCH | 0.1777 | 1.56 |
| βGARCH | 0.8103 | 11.22*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1777 | 1.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8103 | 11.22*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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