TrueShares Eagle Global Next Gen Power Infrastructure ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.39%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
15.62%
increased by 0.70%
1 Month
16.04%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 6.41 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0640 | 2.33** |
| αARCH | 0.0543 | 1.30 |
| βGARCH | 0.8717 | 12.76*** |
| νDF | 6.4084 | 0.18 |
0.872
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0640 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0543 | 1.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8717 | 12.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4084 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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