V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
93.65%
increased by 3.96%
1 Week
95.74%
increased by 6.05%
1 Month
96.21%
increased by 6.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2334 | 2.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1337 | 1.63 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 21.1917 | 0.30 |
| γ2 | -86.8023 | -0.85 |
| γ3 | 154.8410 | 2.71*** |
| γ4 | -179.6773 | -3.92*** |
| γ5 | 243.7415 | 4.01*** |
0.134
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2334 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1337 | 1.63 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 21.1917 | 0.30 |
| γ2 | -86.8023 | -0.85 |
| γ3 | 154.8410 | 2.71*** |
| γ4 | -179.6773 | -3.92*** |
| γ5 | 243.7415 | 4.01*** |
Persistence:
0.134
Half-life:
0 days
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