V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
64.21%
increased by 2.78%
1 Week
64.32%
increased by 2.89%
1 Month
64.65%
increased by 3.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8806 | 0.33 |
| αARCH | 0.0865 | 1.34 |
| βGARCH | 0.8620 | 10.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.2000 | 0.86 |
| δpower | 2.1416 | 1.20 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8806 | 0.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0865 | 1.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8620 | 10.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2000 | 0.86 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.1416 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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