Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
56.81%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Week
57.43%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Month
59.38%
increased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5554 | 0.89 |
| αARCH | 0.0826 | 2.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8853 | 14.98*** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5554 | 0.89 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0826 | 2.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8853 | 14.98*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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