State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
32.25%
increased by 1.99%
1 Week
32.21%
increased by 1.95%
1 Month
32.06%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0557 | 20.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0675 | 24.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9176 | 349.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5737 | 21.23*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2840 | 27.17*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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