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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

32.25%

increased by 1.99%

1 Week

32.21%

increased by 1.95%

1 Month

32.06%

increased by 1.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0557
20.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0675
24.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9176
349.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5737
21.23***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2840
27.17***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days