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V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

28.10%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

28.38%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

29.30%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8044
10.01***
αARCH0.0773
6.25***
βGARCH0.8992
62.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0011
-2.60***

0.977

Persistence

29d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8044
10.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0773
6.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8992
62.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0011
-2.60***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days