V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
35.26%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
35.19%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
34.95%
decreased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8036 | 9.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 6.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8990 | 61.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0012 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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