State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
31.11%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
31.10%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
31.06%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0776 | 15.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0161 | 7.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9124 | 354.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1019 | 16.07*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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