State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
32.38%
increased by 0.80%
1 Week
32.33%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
32.14%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.6924 | 9.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0701 | 25.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9856 | 482.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.9063 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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