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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

27.07%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

27.18%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

27.54%

decreased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 10.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.6779
2.35**
αARCH0.0692
6.24***
βGARCH0.9857
120.85***
νDF10.8037
0.74

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.6779
2.35**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0692
6.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
120.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.8037
0.74

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days