Skip to main content
V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

31.96%

decreased by 1.13%

1 Week

31.92%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Month

31.78%

decreased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.7046
9.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0695
24.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
480.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.8140
2.96***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days