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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

32.38%

increased by 0.80%

1 Week

32.33%

increased by 0.75%

1 Month

32.14%

increased by 0.56%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.6924
9.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0701
25.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9856
482.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.9063
2.95***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days