State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.85%
increased by 3.39%
1 Week
33.59%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
26.08%
decreased by 7.38%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0677 | 30.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2082 | 58.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7616 | 195.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1763 | 29.74*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7120 | 19.67*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on ETFs