State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
31.57%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
31.52%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Month
31.34%
decreased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 299% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0332 | 10.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1299 | 28.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9746 | 721.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0779 | -19.60*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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