V-Lab
Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
22.75%
1 Week
22.66%
1 Month
22.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0630 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.0326 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9131 | 24.89*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
| δpower | 1.7261 | 3.11*** |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0630 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9131 | 24.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7261 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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