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V-Lab
V-Lab

Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

21.31%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

21.28%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

21.18%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 8.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7336
1.74*
αARCH0.0533
1.71*
βGARCH0.9580
45.11***
νDF8.2062
0.20

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7336
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0533
1.71*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9580
45.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.2062
0.20

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days