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V-Lab
V-Lab

Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

21.61%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

21.85%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

22.46%

increased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7866
8.49***
αARCH0.0732
1.71*
βGARCH0.8546
12.80***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0498
-1.94*

0.928

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7866
8.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0732
1.71*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8546
12.80***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0498
-1.94*

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days