V-Lab
Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.61%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
21.85%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
22.46%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7866 | 8.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0732 | 1.71* |
| βGARCH | 0.8546 | 12.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0498 | -1.94* |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7866 | 8.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0732 | 1.71* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8546 | 12.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0498 | -1.94* |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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