V-Lab
Fidelity Disruptive Automation ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.14%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
21.13%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
21.11%
decreased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0695 | 1.28 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9091 | 24.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.1027 | 1.43 |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0695 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9091 | 24.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1027 | 1.43 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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