V-Lab
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
51.15%
1 Week
54.02%
1 Month
61.20%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 0.99 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3406 | 1.94* |
| αARCH | 0.1368 | 3.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8145 | 19.04*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 2.71*** |
| δpower | 0.9922 | 3.06*** |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3406 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1368 | 3.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8145 | 19.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 2.71*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9922 | 3.06*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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