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V-Lab

-1x Short VIX Futures ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

51.15%

decreased by 3.82%

1 Week

54.02%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

61.20%

increased by 6.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of -1x Short VIX Futures ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 0.99 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifeδ = 0.99 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3406
1.94*
αARCH0.1368
3.41***
βGARCH0.8145
19.04***
γleverage1.0000
2.71***
δpower0.9922
3.06***

0.923

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3406
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1368
3.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8145
19.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
2.71***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9922
3.06***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days