V-Lab
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
68.46%
increased by 11.61%
1 Week
68.49%
increased by 11.64%
1 Month
68.55%
increased by 11.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.10 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 18.6825 | 1.55 |
| αARCH | 0.1849 | 3.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8954 | 13.23*** |
| νDF | 4.0970 | 1.63 |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.6825 | 1.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1849 | 3.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8954 | 13.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0970 | 1.63 |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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