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-1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

68.46%

increased by 11.61%

1 Week

68.49%

increased by 11.64%

1 Month

68.55%

increased by 11.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of -1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst18.6825
1.55
αARCH0.1849
3.46***
βGARCH0.8954
13.23***
νDF4.0970
1.63

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

18.6825
1.55
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1849
3.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8954
13.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0970
1.63

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days