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-1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

43.47%

decreased by 1.70%

1 Week

49.30%

increased by 4.13%

1 Month

59.81%

increased by 14.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of -1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

18.8090
6.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1838
13.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8945
51.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0387
6.55***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days