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-1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

121.21%

increased by 29.03%

1 Week

113.59%

increased by 21.41%

1 Month

94.89%

increased by 2.71%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of -1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2022 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 3.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run19.4019
1.41
αscore0.1768
3.54***
βpersistence0.8997
12.53***
νDF3.8595
1.74*

0.900

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

19.4019
1.41
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1768
3.54***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8997
12.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8595
1.74*

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days