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-1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

59.22%

decreased by 9.72%

1 Week

61.32%

decreased by 7.62%

1 Month

65.55%

decreased by 3.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of -1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.2200
6.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1858
13.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8949
50.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0443
6.60***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days