V-Lab
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.47%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
49.30%
increased by 4.13%
1 Month
59.81%
increased by 14.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.8090 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1838 | 13.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8945 | 51.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0387 | 6.55*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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