CBOE Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	106
αARCH	0.0000	0.00
βGARCH	0.7104	20.28***
γleverage	0.4824	9.24***
λ₁tau intercept	10.0000	0.46
λ₂forecast adj.	0.4523	0.51
λ₃tau persistence	0.2425	0.17

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	106
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0000	0.00
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7104	20.28***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.4824	9.24***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	0.46
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.4523	0.51
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.2425	0.17

V-Lab

-1x Short VIX Futures ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other -1x Short VIX Futures ETF Analyses