V-Lab
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
62.00%
decreased by 9.46%
1 Week
63.01%
decreased by 8.45%
1 Month
65.01%
decreased by 6.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6578 | 57.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4665 | 34.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5808 | 0.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0186 | 0.84 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9503 | 12.52*** |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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