V-Lab
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
37.68%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Week
41.72%
increased by 2.88%
1 Month
46.95%
increased by 8.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3174 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2184 | 3.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5996 | 7.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.4792 | 0.55 |
| γ2 | 0.2047 | 0.16 |
| γ3 | -1.7256 | -1.84* |
| γ4 | 1.5321 | 2.21** |
Persistence:
0.818
Half-life:
3 days
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