V-Lab
BetaPro NASDAQ-100 2x Daily Bull ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
36.24%
1 Week
37.01%
1 Month
39.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2008 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.87 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0914 | 5.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1037 | 7.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8860 | 63.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.8049 | 4.18*** |
| δpower | 0.8663 | 5.92*** |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0914 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 7.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8860 | 63.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8049 | 4.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8663 | 5.92*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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