V-Lab
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap & Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.74%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
2.09%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
2.97%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3622 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7314 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3998 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1376 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2820 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0045 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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