DF Tactical 30 ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.40%
decreased by 2.15%
1 Week
30.26%
decreased by 3.29%
1 Month
27.99%
decreased by 5.56%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3441 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7992 | 17.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1443 | 2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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