V-Lab
Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
10.39%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
10.83%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
11.91%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0465 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8333 | 46.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2071 | 5.69*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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