Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
11.85%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
12.01%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
12.42%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0427 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8388 | 11.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.1977 | 1.55 |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0427 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8388 | 11.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1977 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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