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Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

10.04%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

10.49%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

11.61%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0448
1.47
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8336
11.53***
γleverage0.2062
1.48

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0448
1.47
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8336
11.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2062
1.48

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days