Baron Technology ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
37.89%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
37.95%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
38.16%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8933 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 7.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.1185 | -0.15 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
162 days
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