V-Lab
Baron Technology ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
37.65%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
37.70%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
37.91%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9030 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 8.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.9104 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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