V-Lab
Janus Henderson B-BBB CLO ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.08%
1 Week
2.29%
1 Month
3.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0019 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.0449 | 1.57 |
| βGARCH | 0.8585 | 29.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.1933 | 2.49** |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0449 | 1.57 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8585 | 29.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1933 | 2.49** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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