V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.07%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
11.63%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
13.03%
increased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.67) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1287 | 19.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8087 | 105.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6678 | 16.26*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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