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V-Lab

Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2.13%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

2.20%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.47%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0008
3.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8827
81.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2175
5.68***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days