Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.84%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
5.85%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
5.92%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0010 | 1.07 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8622 | 14.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.2662 | 1.80* |
0.995
Persistence147d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 1.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8622 | 14.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2662 | 1.80* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
147 days
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