V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2.13%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.20%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.47%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0008 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8827 | 81.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2175 | 5.68*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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