V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
1.91%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.00%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.29%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 0.91 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8775 | 18.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.2202 | 1.49 |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 0.91 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8775 | 18.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2202 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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