Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.66%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
1.77%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
2.12%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8726 | 18.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.2295 | 1.60 |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8726 | 18.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2295 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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