V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
1.85%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
1.95%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.27%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 0.99 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8721 | 17.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.2293 | 1.59 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 0.99 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8721 | 17.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2293 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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