V-Lab
Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.23%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
25.24%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
25.26%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9016 | 228.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1463 | 26.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.5530 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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