Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
29.28%
increased by 6.01%
1 Week
29.01%
increased by 5.74%
1 Month
28.11%
increased by 4.84%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0740 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9006 | 47.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.1363 | 2.93*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0740 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9006 | 47.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1363 | 2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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