Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.39%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
11.44%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
11.61%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1209 | 4.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0599 | 7.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9318 | 117.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.96 |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1209 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0599 | 7.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9318 | 117.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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