V-Lab
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.98%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
13.01%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
13.12%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0605 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0583 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9341 | 117.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0007 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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