V-Lab
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
14.50%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
14.49%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
14.47%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1169 | 4.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0600 | 7.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9319 | 117.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.90 |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1169 | 4.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 7.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9319 | 117.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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