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Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

11.60%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

11.66%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

11.91%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0064
3.53***
αARCH0.0596
8.03***
βGARCH0.9340
123.06***

0.994

Persistence

108d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0064
3.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0596
8.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9340
123.06***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

108 days