Invesco DB Agriculture Fund GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.60%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
11.66%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
11.91%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0064 | 3.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0596 | 8.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9340 | 123.06*** |
0.994
Persistence108d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0064 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0596 | 8.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9340 | 123.06*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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