Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, May 26th, 2026
1 Day
3.90%
increased by 2.38%
1 Week
3.91%
increased by 2.39%
1 Month
3.94%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, May 22, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0000 | 0.44 | |
| 0.0718 | 28.84 | |
| 0.9299 | 428.91 | |
| -0.0130 | -2.59 |
Estimation Period:
Aug 5, 2010 to May 22, 2026
Aug 5, 2010 to May 22, 2026
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