Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, May 26th, 2026
1 Day
1.51%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.51%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.52%
increased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, May 22, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0000 | 13.00 | |
| 0.0591 | 29.54 | |
| 0.9409 | 508.30 |
Estimation Period:
Aug 5, 2010 to May 22, 2026
Aug 5, 2010 to May 22, 2026
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