V-Lab
MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
13.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
13.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
13.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2279 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8719 | 1.90* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 13.7234 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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