V-Lab
MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
70.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
70.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
70.11%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.86 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9039 | 21.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.9765 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5774 | 3.56*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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