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V-Lab
V-Lab

MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

29.89%

increased by 25.42%

1 Week

30.65%

increased by 26.18%

1 Month

33.55%

increased by 29.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:51 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3986233 trading days (~15818.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3986233 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0804
0.56
αARCH0.9843
2.09**
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage0.2589
1.53
δpower1.8892
1.33

1.000

Persistence

3986233d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0804
0.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.9843
2.09**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2589
1.53
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8892
1.33

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3986233 days