V-Lab
MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.35%
1 Week
18.50%
1 Month
19.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:52 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 7109 trading days (~28.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0039 | |
| βGARCH | 0.7753 | |
| γleverage | 0.4413 | |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.6429 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0439 | |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8832 |
1.000
Persistence7109d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0039 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7753 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4413 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.6429 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0439 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8832 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7109 days
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