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V-Lab
V-Lab

MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.35%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

18.50%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

19.15%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:52 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of MD Sass Concentrated Value ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 7109 trading days (~28.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~7109 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0039
βGARCH0.7753
γleverage0.4413
λ₁tau intercept2.6429
λ₂forecast adj.0.0439
λ₃tau persistence0.8832

1.000

Persistence

7109d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0039
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7753
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4413
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.6429
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0439
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8832

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

7109 days