V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
4.68%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.66%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.62%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0027 | 3.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9491 | 52.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0340 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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