V-Lab
BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.34%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.34%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.35%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0029 | 3.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9440 | 53.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0367 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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