V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.07%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.07%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.07%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0478 | -1.10 |
| αARCH | 0.0898 | 1.55 |
| βGARCH | 0.9824 | 54.66*** |
| γleverage | -0.0438 | -0.88 |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0478 | -1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0898 | 1.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9824 | 54.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0438 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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