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V-Lab
V-Lab

Schwab Core Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

4.31%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

4.30%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

4.26%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Core Bond ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1115
4.91***
αARCH0.0474
1.71*
βGARCH0.9377
25.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.1188
0.65

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1115
4.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0474
1.71*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9377
25.10***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.1188
0.65

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days