Schwab Core Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
3.72%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
3.72%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
3.71%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1749 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0526 | 1.61 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9267 | 20.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2475 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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