V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.03%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.02%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
4.00%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1407 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0522 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9300 | 22.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1720 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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