V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
3.87%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
3.89%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.97%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 daysv = 200.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1229 | 2.19** |
| αARCH | 0.0624 | 2.24** |
| βGARCH | 0.9952 | 148.85*** |
| νDF | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1229 | 2.19** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0624 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 148.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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