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V-Lab

Schwab Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

4.23%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

4.24%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

4.30%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Core Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1235
8.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
8.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9949
564.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.04

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

135 days